The signing of the sales deal in early 2025 did not end the debate. Instead, it became a stepping stone for a bolder, more existential play.
While De Beers moved its "sights" (sales events) to Gaborone in 2013, a symbolic victory for the nation, critics argue this was a logistical shift rather than a structural economic transformation. Botswana still sells the rough stones. The lucrative downstream industries—where a rough stone becomes a polished jewel sold in a boutique in New York or Hong Kong—remain largely out of reach for the Batswana economy.
Recent developments: changing market dynamics and renegotiation The global diamond industry changed significantly from the 2000s onward. De Beers’ market dominance weakened as competitors emerged and as market mechanisms evolved toward more transparent selling platforms. Botswana instituted periodic renegotiations and updates to Debswana and took steps to increase its bargaining position—negotiations in the 2000s and 2010s adjusted revenue terms and recognized the need for greater local beneficiation. More recently, both parties have shown a willingness to update agreements to reflect modern market realities, including shifting marketing arrangements and improving transparency. These changes reduce the argument that Botswana remains locked into an exploitative static arrangement.
The claim that is getting a "raw deal" from De Beers has been a central theme in recent high-stakes negotiations, driven by the country's desire to capture more value from its natural resources The signing of the sales deal in early
More significantly, the has explicitly warned Botswana against increasing its stake in De Beers. The IMF points to Botswana's precarious fiscal position—a projected budget deficit of 11% of GDP, rising public debt, and an economy already dangerously over-dependent on a single, declining industry. The argument is simple: taking on billions in debt to buy a majority share of a struggling diamond company in a shrinking market is a gamble the country cannot afford.
Following years of tense negotiations, culminating in a final agreement in February 2025 and ongoing implementations in 2026, the question of whether Botswana is truly maximizing its natural wealth remains central to its economic sovereignty, according to reports from. The Historical Context: A Partnership Built on Dependence
: After years of contentious negotiations, a new 10-year sales agreement and a 25-year extension of mining licenses (through 2054) were finalized in early 2025. Botswana still sells the rough stones
Yet, from the very beginning, the scales of benefit have been a source of latent tension. Profits were largely booked abroad, and for a long time, Botswana's leadership did not have full visibility of the true value of its own resources. Over the past 20 years, the government has learned to negotiate harder, clawing back a larger share of the proceeds. However, for many local economists and political leaders, the shift has been far too slow and insufficient.
In 2025 alone, De Beers posted a $511 million loss, and Debswana was forced to slash production from 17.9 million carats in 2024 to just 15.1 million in 2025. Consequently, Botswana ended 2025 sitting on a massive stockpile of 12 million unsold carats, double its target inventory.
Botswana and De Beers recently renegotiated their agreement. Key wins for Botswana include: De Beers’ market dominance weakened as competitors emerged
Botswana Diamond Glut Crisis Hits 12M Carats in 2026 - Discovery Alert
Transfer pricing—where goods are sold between entities of the same company—could be stripping the country of tax revenue.